Inflation data to be released on Wednesday will help clarify the FED's next move. Before the critical data, statements about monetary policy from FED members continue to come.
While a 25 basis point rate hike is considered certain at the next meeting, it is expected that interest rates will remain constant for a while afterwards. The year 2024 is pointed out for the interest rates to decline.
While the crises experienced especially on the banking side changed the expectations regarding monetary policy, New York FED Chairman John Williams made the following statement regarding monetary policy.
“I see some slowdown in labor demand, but the labor market is still very strong.
Inflation is still well above our 2% target, but I see that inflation in goods and commodities has decreased.
We did not see a drop in some basic services inflation, we still have a lot of work to do.
It is too early to see a change in credit terms and credit use cases. We do not see strong signs of these effects. The effect of turbulence in banks on loans is unclear.
We have reached a restrictive point in monetary policy. Now we need to monitor retail sales, CPI and other data.
The crisis in the banks increased the uncertainty in the outlook.
If inflation is permanent, we will have to adjust our policy accordingly.
A rate hike seems more plausible, but we'll be guided by the data.
If inflation falls, we will have to lower interest rates.
The downsizing of the balance sheet continues rapidly. I don't think we need to change our balance sheet policy anytime soon."