Two Former FED Senior Officials Revealed Interest Rate Expectations for Tonight, Prediction Charts Go Upside Down

The Fed's upcoming decision on interest rates has sparked debate among former officials, with disagreements over whether to cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points.

Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester recently advocated a more cautious approach to quantitative easing, arguing that there was a solid case for a series of smaller, 25 basis point rate cuts.

On the other hand, former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that calls for a 50 basis point cut are overblown. Bullard advocates a 25 basis point cut today, suggesting that a modest cut would be more appropriate in the current economic environment.

Following the statements of former senior FED officials, an unusual view was observed in the graph of the possibility of a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Polymarkets:

That discussion has added to market volatility, especially as the S&P 500 continues to rise. According to Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank, the increased speculation about the size of the rate cut could provide the momentum needed for the S&P 500 to close at a new high. Reid cited historical data on Fed rate cuts dating back to 1957, noting that the S&P 500 has typically risen in the year leading up to a rate cut. That makes the current situation, where quantitative easing is being considered amid a record-breaking stock market, quite unusual.

*This is not investment advice.