Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave an update on the economic outlook in his speech now at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and emphasized a cautious and balanced approach.
Powell stated that the FED does not foresee any interest rate cuts until there is more confidence in inflation. He noted that it was too early to tell whether the latest inflation data was more than a temporary increase. The Fed continues to believe its policy rate is likely at its peak for this cycle.
According to Powell, the US economy remains solid with strong growth. However, the labor market is rebalancing, as evidenced by data on layoffs, job vacancies, employer and employee surveys, and the continued gradual decline in wage growth. Although the latest data on employment increases and inflation are higher than expected, Powell emphasized that they do not significantly change the overall picture.
The Fed is taking a measured approach, letting incoming data guide policy decisions.
On climate change, Powell explained that the Fed has a narrow role as bank regulator, which is likely to include climate-related financial risks over time.
Despite the positive outlook, Powell acknowledged that the future is still very uncertain. The Fed faces risks on both sides of its mandate, according to the statement, but those risks continue to move toward better balance.
According to Powell, if the economy develops as the central bank expects, most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants see it appropriate to start reducing the policy rate at some point this year. But this requires the Fed to have greater confidence that inflation is sustainably moving towards its 2% target.
Later in the speech, Powell's statements continued as follows: I think monetary policy is working.
In addition to lowering rates too early, there are also risks in waiting too long.
I don't think inflation will reverse and rise.
The risk of acting too soon would be quite devastating indeed.
*This is not investment advice.