While waiting for critical inflation data from the USA, BTC fell below $ 27,000 after the PPI figures and FED minutes were announced yesterday.
While Bitcoin was at $ 26,790 before the US inflation data, it was evaluated that the speeches of the FED members who spoke during the week about pausing the interest rate increase cycle strengthened the hopes that the FED's tightening cycle was over.
Referring to 2019 as hopes emerged that the FED tightening cycle had come to an end, experts reminded the scenario experienced in 2019.
Because in 2019, the FED completed the interest rate increase cycle and adopted the 'wait and watch' strategy for seven months.
While interest rates peaked at 2.5% in December 2018 following the FED's interest rate increases, BTC bottomed out in December 2018 and rose to $13,880 at the end of June 2019 with the end of the interest rate increase cycle.
In this context, due to the speeches of FED members signaling a pause in the interest rate increase cycle, experts stated that the belief that the FED's tightening cycle ended with the 25 basis point interest rate increase in July has strengthened.
Experts also stated that history does not always repeat itself, but they opened a parenthesis here and emphasized that history often repeats itself in financial markets.
Speaking to Coindesk at this point, Matrixport research head Markus Thielen, referring to 2019, said:
“When we look at 2019, the FED completed its interest rate hike cycle and entered a seven-month pause period.
During this period, Bitcoin experienced a tremendous price increase. BTC surged an impressive 325% to $13,880.
At this point, in our opinion, it seems highly likely that the FED will complete the interest rate hike cycle in July 2023.
Assuming that the current situation is equal to the situation in 2019, past data points to an increase in Bitcoin.
So the current situation seems to be a reflection of the situation in 2019, when the FED paused commission increases, leading to a significant increase in Bitcoin prices, and history seems likely to repeat itself for BTC. “
Markus Thielen, who despite his positive thoughts for Bitcoin, recently advised investors to closely follow the logic behind the FED's possible interest rate cuts, also warned that interest rate cuts implemented against economic weakness and low inflation could have negative consequences for Bitcoin.
*This is not investment advice.