Cryptocurrency analytics company GreeksLive assessed current market expectations and their potential impact on Bitcoin ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision tomorrow.
According to the company’s analysis, futures markets are almost certain that the Fed will not change interest rates at its March meeting. Based on current pricing, there is a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged in the 3.5%–3.75% range. A similar scenario is emerging for the April meeting, with markets pricing in a “no interest rate change” scenario with a 97% probability.
According to GreeksLive, the next two FED meetings could be among the most critical turning points of the year for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts point out that the global macroeconomic environment is quite complex, noting that the war in the Middle East, in particular, is pushing energy prices higher, which is putting renewed pressure on inflation (PCE). With these developments, the “interest rate cut optimism” at the beginning of the year has gradually given way to expectations of “high interest rates for a long time.”
Among the dates closely watched by the market, March 18 and April 29 stand out. At the March 18 meeting, attention will be particularly focused on the “dot plot” data, which shows the Fed’s future interest rate projections. According to the analysis, there is a possibility that these projections will not foresee any interest rate cuts by 2026. The April 29 meeting is of particular importance; this will be the last critical decision-making meeting before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s term ends. It is stated that Powell’s messages at this meeting could be decisive in determining liquidity conditions in the second half of the year.
On the Bitcoin side, the price is consolidating around $74,000, and market sentiment is reportedly in a “neutral” zone. GreeksLive predicts that hawkish signals from the Fed, particularly a reduction in expectations of interest rate cuts in 2026, could tighten liquidity and pull the Bitcoin price back down to the $68,000 support level. Conversely, a dovish surprise (for example, Powell giving messages that inflation is under control or that the focus will be on the labor market) could lead to Bitcoin moving towards the $80,000 level due to increased liquidity expectations.
Another important element highlighted in the analysis is Kevin Warsh, described as the “X factor.” The uncertainty surrounding Warsh’s monetary policy approach, nominated by US President Donald Trump for the Fed chairmanship, is seen as an additional risk factor in the markets. According to GreeksLive, institutional investors, especially before the April meeting, may tend to reduce their positions due to this uncertainty, leading to risk aversion. This situation could cause sharp volatility, particularly in the altcoin market.
There are also warnings that a rise in the dollar index (DXY) above 106 could put short-term pressure on crypto assets.
In the long term, it is noted that Bitcoin’s supply continues to shrink after the halving, and this situation may continue to have a supportive effect on the price.
*This is not investment advice.
