There are only 3 days left until the critical interest rate decision for Turkey, which has been struggling with high exchange rates and high inflation for a while.
With Mehmet Şimşek as the head of the economy, expectations for orthodox policies increased and the eyes were turned to the interest rate decision to be announced by the CBRT on 22 June.
President Erdogan's statement, "We have accepted the steps Mehmet Şimşek will take" recently, also strengthened the expectations that the fight against inflation will be targeted by raising interest rates again.
While the eyes were turned to the CBRT's interest rate decision on June 22, there was a sharp movement in the USDT/TRY parity, which is traded on crypto currency exchanges.
USDT, which was traded at 23.5 TL on Binance, quickly hit 22.2 and then rose again to 23.37. While the reason for this 5% retracement is unknown, it is considered that a large investor may have exited the dollar before the interest rate decision, but the price recovered quickly because the buying pressure is still high.
We see that there is a general expectation that the interest rates in the market will be increased to 20% and above in a single meeting.
Finally, Bank of America stated that it is expected that the CBRT will increase the interest rates to 25%, but that it should be prepared for different scenarios. The following statements were included in the report published yesterday:
"Two paths are possible for the CBRT. The first path is to increase interest rates and slowly remove regulations and controls. In this scenario, it is possible to set the interest rate at 25 percent or lower and signal more interest rate increases. The other scenario is to start by raising the interest rate to restrictive levels without easing the current financial conditions. "The scenario will allow a faster correction in the economy and strengthen credibility and predictability. In our opinion, the possibilities are more in favor of a gradual correction rather than a quick one. The corridor can also be used to make additional tightening without increasing interest rates."