Former FED Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson shared his expectations for June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), inflation and interest rate cuts in a recent speech.
Ferguson dismissed the idea that the July meeting could be a lively meeting that could see a rate cut move. He stated that the FED has repeatedly stated that it needs more confidence before making such a move.
He believes the July meeting will likely be a transition meeting and will signal that the Fed has provided the confidence boost needed to strengthen the possibility of a rate cut in September.
When asked about the much stronger-than-expected GDP report, Ferguson said the Fed sees it as a good signal that the economy is strong and can withstand higher interest rates. This also shows that the FED does not need to move quickly to lower interest rates.
However, he acknowledged that signs of weakness were beginning to emerge, such as the chain-weighted price index coming in significantly lower than expected and the labor market moving towards equilibrium, possibly even weakness. Despite these signs, Ferguson believes the Fed may wait until September to cut interest rates because the economy is not tanking.
Ferguson also noted that the latest GDP data is very important as it shows that the economy is still in fairly good shape, even as labor markets stabilize and other risks begin to emerge. He said the Fed is not facing a rapidly declining economy, so it is not risking what is hoped will be a soft landing.
*This is not investment advice.