Bitcoin continued to recover after last week's decline, rising above $67,000.
While the expectation of an increase in the price increased after the Bitcoin Halving that took place over the weekend, a new report came from Fidelity.
In a recent report, Fidelity Digital Assets revised its Bitcoin forecast and changed its medium-term outlook from positive to neutral.
Pointing out that the selling pressure in Bitcoin has increased at this point, Fidelity analysts argued that the BTC price is no longer “cheap” due to the increased selling pressure.
Fidelity analysts, who use metrics such as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio in their Bitcoin predictions and the MVRV Z-Score, which is used to evaluate when BTC is overvalued or undervalued, stated the following in the report:
“We revise Bitcoin's medium-term outlook to neutral. This indicates that Bitcoin is now trading at “fair value.”
Among the metrics that contributed to the revision of the outlook on BTC was the fact that long-term holders were increasing the selling pressure, 99% of the addresses were making a profit, and this could “increase the selling pressure.”
Other on-chain metrics supporting its revision include the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio and the MVRV Z-Score, which is used to evaluate when BTC is over- or undervalued.”
“We are in the Middle of the Four-Year Cycle!”
Fidelity also noted that price levels above the golden cross indicate bullish momentum in Bitcoin, with Bitcoin trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages throughout the first quarter.
Finally, Fidelity research director Chris Kuiper stated in the report that we are in the middle of the 4-year time frame in Bitcoin and said, “We believe that on-chain indicators are now clearly above the lowest or extreme lows previously observed. However, we are not even close to the highest levels in history. The indicators are at the midpoint or “In fact, historically, a disproportionate amount of price increases occur in the second half of the cycle.” said.
Where are we at in the digital asset cycle?
Our latest Signals report just dropped and we changed a couple of our outlooks for #bitcoin.
Most notably the mid-term outlook is now "Neutral" from "Positive" last quarter. Why?https://t.co/Dx042hZlzV
— Chris Kuiper, CFA (@ChrisJKuiper) April 22, 2024
*This is not investment advice.
