After the FED left interest rates constant as expected, Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference started at 22:30 GMT.
Here are the most important highlights from Powell's critical speech:
- The economy has made good progress and inflation has decreased.
- The path forward is unclear.
- The policy rate has entered the restrictive zone.
- Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.
- High interest rates negatively affected the fixed investments of businesses.
- Activities in the housing sector stagnated.
- The labor market remains tight.
- Inflation has fallen significantly but remains above the 2% target.
- Labor demand still exceeds supply.
- Falling inflation welcome, but ongoing evidence needed
- Long-term inflation expectations appear well-anchored.
- Our policy rate is probably at its peak.
- It would probably be appropriate to start reducing interest rates this year.
- If the economy develops as expected, we will withdraw the policy rate this year.
- Continued progress on inflation is uncertain.
- I am ready to maintain the current policy rate for longer if necessary.
- Reducing policy restrictions too early or too much could reverse progress in inflation.
- At the same time, reducing the policy rate too late may unnecessarily weaken the economy.
- We need more confidence before lowering the policy rate.
- We have six months of good inflation data. We need to make sure that what we see in the inflation data is the real signal.
- We don't think we necessarily need to see weaker growth for inflation to fall.
- It seems likely that we will achieve confidence regarding inflation.
- Almost everyone on the committee believes that lowering interest rates would be appropriate.
- We're really in risk management mode right now.
- We don't know where the neutral interest rate is.
- The timing of interest rate cuts depends on our confidence.
- 12-month inflation has fallen considerably and will likely continue to fall.
- We are not looking for a decline in employment, but if we see a weakening we will reduce interest rates. In the base scenario where the economy is healthy and the labor market is strong, we can be careful about the timing of the interest rate cut. There was no proposal for a rate cut today.
- We were not actively considering a rate cut.
- There is wide disagreement in the committee.
- It would probably be appropriate to cut interest rates this year.
- I think lower rental costs are coming and will feed into that. Lower rent inflation is in everyone's forecast.
- I can't say we've had a soft landing yet. We have a long road ahead of us to reach a soft landing. We do not declare victory.
- The supply side is recovering, but it won't continue indefinitely.
- Much of the economic growth we are seeing is due to the post-pandemic recovery, and once this is over our restrictive interest rate will come into sharper focus.
- It would be a surprise at this point if inflation started to rise again.
- I am more concerned that inflation will stabilize at a high level.
- Based on today's meeting, I do not think there will be a rate cut in March.
- We need to see more evidence that confirms what we think we see and gives us confidence that we are on a sustainable path to 2% inflation.
- We are trying to identify a place where we are confident about inflation to begin the process of lowering the restrictive level.
- To get to a place where we can lower rates we need more confirmation that inflation is falling sustainably.
The FED had increased interest rates 11 times since March 2022 in order to combat the fastest inflation in recent decades.
Since then, price increases have decreased significantly and are closer to the Fed's 2% target. This means that the FED will cut interest rates in 2024, but the timing of this first interest rate cut remains unclear.
Much of the Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement, released at 10 p.m., was virtually identical to statements made at previous meetings. However, small changes with big meanings were made.
Statements made in the past few meetings have included a line saying “in determining the scope of any additional policy tightening that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time,” here are the conditions and/or situations to be considered.
This statement was completely removed at the January meeting, implying that FED officials no longer believed it was worth keeping the door open for further interest rate hikes.
However, the statement continued to state that inflation “continues to remain high.” Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN that if the FED removed this statement and replaced it with a more neutral statement, it could mean that it was preparing for an interest rate cut.
*This is not investment advice.