Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave the clearest sign yet that quantitative easing is imminent by saying it's time to cut interest rates.
The timing and magnitude of these reductions will depend on careful assessment of risks to the U.S. economy, Powell said.
“We do not want or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said in his speech, indicating that the central bank is increasingly cautious about tightening policy further given the potential impact on employment. The Fed’s primary goal remains to bring inflation back to its 2% target, but the resilience of the labor market has made the path to price stability more complicated.
Market reactions were swift. Mesirow CEO Uto Shinohara said Powell’s comments largely confirmed market expectations for a September rate cut. Investors are currently pricing in a cut of around 30 basis points, with expectations for a total annual cut rising from 95 to 100 basis points. Shinohara added that future rate movements will continue to be heavily influenced by upcoming employment data, which could further impact the US dollar.
Powell’s growing confidence that inflation will slow signals a shift in focus at the Fed. While the Fed has been concerned about inflationary pressures for months, Powell has acknowledged that the labor market now poses a more significant risk. The unemployment rate has been rising gradually and economists have warned that an overly tight labor market could destabilize broader economic conditions.
As the September Fed meeting approaches, the market will continue to scrutinize economic data to gauge the Fed’s next steps. For now, Powell’s message is clear: While inflation remains a priority, the Fed is aware of potential tradeoffs in its approach.
*This is not investment advice.