After the US CPI data was announced, reports about FED expectations began to come from banks.
In today's report, Citibank stated that they expect the FED to keep interest rates constant in September and that they expect a 25 basis point interest rate increase in November.
JPMorgan analysts stated in their investor note published yesterday that they did not expect any further interest rate increases this cycle.
We see that the FED's interest rate increase cycle has come to an end, an interest rate increase is not expected in September, but there are expectations that there may be a final interest rate increase in November.
On September 20, FED policymakers will announce their short-term interest rate forecasts for the end of 2023. Considering that there are only two meetings left after September, these meetings will give strong clues about the interest rate move in November.
From now on, markets will price how long interest rates will remain high, rather than whether there will be an increase in interest rates. While the first signals of interest rate cuts are expected to come in the second half of 2024, uncertainty about the direction of the markets may continue until then.
The messages to be given on Bitcoin and global markets will be followed rather than the interest rate decision to be announced on September 20.