The FED left interest rates unchanged, as expected.
The FED has continued to keep policy interest rates unchanged since December 2024. The decision is driven by factors such as global uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and volatile inflation trends.
The Fed has warned of risks of higher unemployment and inflation, citing growing uncertainty about the economic outlook.
FED Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference today at 21:30 Turkish time following the two-day monetary policy meeting.
At the March 2025 meeting, the Fed had kept the policy rate steady at 4.25% – 4.50% and announced that it foresaw two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year. Powell said at that meeting that they did not intend to make a hasty rate cut despite geopolitical risks. The FOMC statement said, “If risks emerge that could prevent the achievement of targets, the stance of monetary policy will be adjusted as necessary.”
However, President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on Powell to cut interest rates in order to prevent a slowdown in the economy. Indeed, in the first quarter of 2025, the US economy contracted by 0.3 percent on an annual basis due to the effects of trade wars. In contrast, April employment data is positive: 177,000 new jobs were added in the US. In March, core PCE inflation data remained unchanged; in February, this rate increased by 0.4 percent.
There is still uncertainty about how many interest rate cuts will be made throughout the year. According to Kalshi data, investors now expect three interest rate cuts in 2025, compared to the previous estimate of four.
Wall Street expectations are as follows:
- Goldman Sachs: 3 cuts (July, September, November)
- Morgan Stanley: 0 discount
- Bank of America: 4 discounts
- Citigroup: 5 off
- JPMorgan & Barclays: 2 discounts
- Fed median forecast: 2 cuts
*This is not investment advice.
