According to the last minute information announced, the FED lowered interest rates by 50 basis points.
Before the rate decision, Polymarkets data gave almost equal probabilities for 25 basis point and 50 basis point cuts. CME Fedwatch data priced a 50 basis point cut at 54% and a 25 basis point cut at 46%.
Bitcoin price reacted to the interest rate decision as follows:
FOCM Statements:
- Confidence in inflation has increased and continues to move towards 2%.
- The Fed is committed to supporting full employment and a 2% inflation target.
- Risks to employment and inflation targets have been balanced.
- Members approved the interest rate decision by 11 votes to 1, while unanimity was achieved in the last meeting.
- As we consider further interest rate adjustments, we will carefully consider incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.
- Economic activity expanded “steadily,” employment growth slowed, and the unemployment rate rose but remained low.
- The economic outlook is uncertain and we are concerned about risks on both sides (of the dual mission).
- According to the FED's dot plot chart, among 19 officials, 2 officials think that no further interest rate cuts should be made in 2024 after this meeting, 7 officials think that another 25 basis points interest rate cut should be made in 2024, 9 officials think that another 50 basis points interest rate cut should be made in 2024, and 7 officials think that another 75 basis points interest rate cut should be made in 2024.
Nick Timiraos, a journalist nicknamed “FED Spokesperson”:
“The Fed made a bold start to the rate cut by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time since 2020. Eleven of the 12 Fed members who voted supported the cut, lowering the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. The quarterly forecasts released on Wednesday showed most officials expect to cut interest rates by at least 25bp at meetings in November and December. The decision to cut rates puts the Fed in a new era: trying to prevent last year’s rate hikes, which have pushed borrowing costs to their highest level in two decades, from further weakening the U.S. labor market.”
On the other hand, the dot plot published by the Fed showed that the median estimate for the federal interest rate at the end of 2024 fell to 4.4% from the previous 5.1%.
Now, FED Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference, which will start at 21:30, will be followed carefully. As Bitcoinsistemi.com, we will also convey to you live what Powell conveyed.
While it’s been a steady (but grueling) journey to bring inflation down from its peak of 9.1% in 2022, the bumpy first half of this year has proven otherwise, vindicating the Fed’s patience. “Inflation has been coming down in 2022 and 2023 without having a big impact on employment conditions or the U.S. consumer,” Oscar Muñoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, told CNN. After that, Fed officials likely realized that “the level of interest rates since the July rate hike of last year was probably sufficient to keep inflation from accelerating while protecting the economy,” Muñoz said.
*This is not investment advice.
