In a speech today, Fed Member Michelle Bowman reiterated her cautious stance on US monetary policy and stated that inflationary risks continue.
Bowman, speaking at a bankers' conference in Alaska, said reacting too quickly to the latest economic data could jeopardize progress made in controlling inflation.
Bowman, known as one of the Fed’s more hawkish policymakers, has refrained from endorsing further rate hikes, a position he has previously supported. However, he has given little indication that he is prepared to support an expected rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 meeting.
“If inflation continues to fall sustainably toward our 2% target, it would be appropriate to gradually reduce the federal interest rate,” Bowman said. That approach would prevent monetary policy from becoming too restrictive on economic growth and employment, he said. However, Bowman cautioned against overreacting to any one data point, noting patience is key, making an apparent reference to the July jobs report, which showed hiring slowing and unemployment rising to 4.3%, the highest level since the pandemic.
Bowman noted inconsistencies in recent employment data, raising concerns that both the strength of employment growth and the recent rise in unemployment could be misleading. “Increased measurement difficulties and frequent data revisions make it even more difficult to accurately assess the current state of the economy,” he said.
Financial markets widely expect the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate from the 5.25%-5.50% range where it has been since July 2023. While market consensus is for a modest quarter-point cut, some speculation is for a larger half-point cut.
*This is not investment advice.
