Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing its longest period of capitulation since the bear market at the end of 2022. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode reports that its Bitcoin price cycle tool is in its coldest phase since the FTX crash.
45 Price Metrics in the Capitulation Zone
Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap has signaled capitulation throughout 2026. Developed by platform co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft, this tool combines 45 different indicators to provide an overall picture of market health. In the heatmap, blue represents a period of “capitulation” within the cycle, while red represents the exuberance of momentum towards the peak.
Following a period of euphoria in November 2021, the heatmap turned blue for much of 2022. That November, the cryptocurrency exchange FTX crashed, an event that marked Bitcoin’s final bear market bottom at $15,600. Schultze-Kraft commented, “Today is its coldest period since FTX: it’s nearing the end of the bear market, but hasn’t yet reached the deep blue that previously marked a bottom.”
On-chain Activity and Investor Behavior
According to Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse report, market participants’ resilience was praised. The report stated, “On-chain activity strengthened significantly. Daily active addresses and asset-adjusted transfer volumes surpassed their upper statistical bands, indicating a marked increase in network participation and economic flow.”
Despite the sudden reaction from some investors following the exploit of a low-entropy vulnerability in Coldcard hardware wallets, the stability of capital outflows was maintained. The analytics platform CryptoQuant compared the increase in on-chain transactions of 1 BTC or less to what happened after the FTX crash. On July 31st, the daily transaction count reached 39,600 BTC, compared to 39,900 BTC on November 16, 2022.
