Bank of America analysts believe Fed Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to defy current market expectations that have priced in four rate cuts this year.
Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook next Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is closely watched by global investors.
The bank’s analysts noted that while the dollar is currently strong, optimism around its strength could pose downside risks. Bank of America, however, argues that Powell will likely avoid contradicting market pricing. “We don’t think Powell will go against market pricing. He will retain the option to ease aggressively, and that will depend on data coming in by the September meeting,” it said.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee also said timing is important when it comes to interest rate decisions. He said the Fed’s actions often take time to affect the economy and that waiting too long to cut rates could be detrimental. If the central bank lags behind economic developments, it could be too late to counter any significant downturn, Goolsbee warned.
*This is not investment advice.