According to some analysts, on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) may have bottomed out in November 2025, but still has significant upside potential.
On-chain data provider Glassnode reported that a key indicator pointed to the formation of a temporary, or even cyclical, bottom during the pullback at the end of November.
According to Glassnode, when Bitcoin fell to around $80,000 in late November last year, a key metric measuring short-term investor behavior reached historical lows. The dataset showed that on November 24th, the “supply in profit/supply in loss” ratio, calculated for short-term holders (those holding the token for less than 155 days), dropped to 0.013. This indicator has historically coincided with major market lows in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022.
During the same period, the supply of short-term holders experiencing losses surged to 2.45 million BTC, reaching its highest level since the FTX crash. In contrast, the supply of profitable holders remained at only around 30,000 BTC. This situation, coupled with extreme pessimism, laid the groundwork for a strong potential reversal.
As 2026 began, Bitcoin was observed to have recovered to the $94,000 region; its increase since the beginning of the year exceeded 7%. With this easing in prices, the short-term supply at a loss decreased to 1.9 million BTC, while the supply at a profit increased to 850,000 BTC, bringing the ratio to approximately 0.45.
Glassnode points out that when this metric approaches and breaks above 1, Bitcoin usually enters a prolonged bull run. Historical data shows that true peaks often occur when the ratio approaches 100.
*This is not investment advice.
