According to Polymarket data, investors are almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting on October 29, 2025. The highest probability in the prediction market is a 25 basis point rate cut.
According to the data:
- Probability of a 25 basis point cut: 90%
- Chance of a 50 basis point or more cut: 4%
- Interest rate remains constant: 7%
- Chance of an increase of 25 basis points or more: 1%
Among contracts traded on Polymarket, the 25 basis point discount option stood out with a trading volume exceeding $5.4 million, while the “no interest rate change” option fell behind with a volume of $4.5 million.
Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said in a client note:
The US government shutdown and associated data delays further increase the likelihood of an interest rate cut in October. The potential damage from the shutdown and concerns about the labor market will outweigh inflation concerns.
Despite cautious rhetoric from Fed officials, Guha said the labor market recovery will not become clear in time, reinforcing the “soft default scenario of consecutive rate cuts by the end of the year.”
*This is not investment advice.
