Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to maintain its momentum after reaching $70,000 in early June.
Despite reaching this level about two weeks ago, Bitcoin price has mostly trended down or sideways, mirroring levels from three months ago. This nearly 7% decline is attributed to a variety of factors rather than a single major event.
One reason for the relative stagnation, according to analysts, is the stagnation of 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Interest in these ETFs increased in January after they were approved by the SEC. According to CoinGlass data, these ETFs are now worth a total of over $53 billion. However, most of the inflows occurred in the first two months of operations.
There was an inflow of $55.3 billion worth of assets into the funds until March 13, indicating a contraction since then. Last week alone, net outflows reached $580.6 million.
According to analysts, another factor hindering Bitcoin's growth is difficult mining conditions. Bitcoin's meteoric rise was fueled by anticipation of the April 19 halving, in which the supply of newly issued coins was reduced by 50% from 6.25 to 3,125 per block. As a result, hashrate (total computing power used for Bitcoin mining) has fluctuated. The rate fell by 11% over the following four weeks after the halving in April, recovered briefly and then fell again.
Matthew Sigel, director of digital assets research at VanEck, described this situation as “typical” post-halving instability, with miners struggling to make profits as the cost per coin doubles.
Sigel predicts that this consolidation phase may continue, but he also predicts that Bitcoin's price will be significantly higher during the US elections in November. He noted that Bitcoin's recent move is typical for a bull market, with price corrections of up to 20% following an all-time high being common. “An 11% decline is not a cause for concern,” Sigel added.
FalconX research manager David Lawant explained that the recent price drop could also be attributed to “relatively weak liquidity.” For example, Bitcoin's average daily trading volume in June fell to less than half of what it was in March in both the spot and futures markets. However, he believes that the long-term recession is due to macroeconomic and political uncertainties.
Bitcoin is trending near the lower end of its range as market participants are “still considering” where the next price catalyst will come from. Areas of uncertainty holding investors back include the path of U.S. monetary policy and the upcoming elections. The Fed predicts interest rates will remain high for longer, contradicting data showing inflation may be cooling. Lawant says the market is trying to “balance out” this situation.
*This is not investment advice.
