Daniel Yan, founder of Kryptanium Capital, recently shared his views on the current state of the cryptocurrency market and his predictions for the future.
Yan believes the market will behave calmer until May 15, and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on that day will determine the direction for the second half of the month. Additionally, Solana defended the AI and Memecoin categories as his top picks for catch-up trading, predicting that they will outperform Bitcoin in May.
Yan stated that he followed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and macro data closely before sharing his detailed analysis. It addressed three main questions:
- Why did the collapse occur in April?
- Can such a collapse be justified?
- What will happen in May?
According to Yan, there were two main drivers for the collapse in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) and an additional driver for the larger-scale collapse in altcoins.
First, persistent inflation and a hot labor market in the US caught the macro market on the wrong side, leading to a massive sell-off in US Treasuries, to which cryptos are sensitive. Second, BTC ETF flows reversed in April. The market expected the ETF to behave like stock ETFs, which people tend to invest in on an ongoing basis and do not have as much price sensitivity. However, the truth is that people use it more as a trading tool, buying high and selling low.
Finally, weak liquidity in altcoins and intense unlocking programs in May combined to crash the altcoin market in a way not seen since 2022, according to the analyst.
Yan believes that the decline for BTC and ETH is fair and justified, but for altcoins, the scale of the decline is too much. He explained that a 15% drop in BTC is quite healthy in a bull market when the bull gets way ahead of himself. However, a 30-50% drop in top altcoins is probably over-exaggerated.
Despite the recent setback, Yan shared some positive news from last week. The US Treasury Department launched its first bond buyback program since 2002, and Powell's dovish FOMC statement and 35 billion/month QT reduction were also seen as positive signs.
Ek olarak, daha zayıf tarım dışı istihdam rakamları, daha zayıf ücret artışı ve İşsizlik Oranındaki %0,1’lik artış (şu anda %3,9, Mart 2022’den bu yana en yüksek) piyasanın normalleşmesine yardımcı oldu. Bu da Bitcoin’in sadece birkaç gün içinde en düşük seviyeden (56700->61500) %10+ toparlanmasına yardımcı oldu.
Yan concluded by saying that May will continue to be a very macro event-driven month for crypto.
*This is not investment advice.
