Bitcoin's march towards $100,000 continues to be one of the most closely watched developments in the cryptocurrency world.
Despite soaring by a remarkable 45% to $99,600 after Donald Trump won the US presidential election on November 5, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is yet to break the six-figure barrier.
However, market sentiment suggests that it’s not a question of “if” but rather “when.” Investors and analysts are making significant predictions that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before the end of 2024, but the path to that milestone is not easy.
On decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, $4.5 million has been invested in the possibility of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 by the end of the year, with current odds at 82%. Meanwhile, on crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, around $900,000 worth of combined notional value has been invested in call options predicting that Bitcoin will reach the milestone by the December 27 expiration date for this year.
These predictions are in line with the bullish outlook of Standard Chartered, which predicts Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of 2024.
While optimism abounds, analysts warn that Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 will not be without its challenges. Market volatility remains a major factor, and price swings are expected to continue as the year draws to a close.
“We expect both the bull run and volatility in Bitcoin to continue for the rest of the year, and a range of $75,000 to $120,000 would not be surprising,” Ed Hindi, chief investment officer at Switzerland-based digital assets hedge fund Tyr Capital, said in a statement.
One factor that has been holding back Bitcoin’s rise is the propensity for profit-taking among investors. The recent rally has boosted sentiment, but some traders may choose to hold onto their gains, creating temporary resistance.
“It is quite possible that the Bitcoin rally is taking a break in the short term as sentiment remains high and positioning appears to be somewhat tense,” said Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe.
If Bitcoin fails to reach $100,000 this year, investors are eyeing early 2025 as a possible timeline. Bitcoin futures contracts expiring on March 28, 2025, on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) are priced at $103.065, pointing to expectations of a milestone breakout in the first quarter of next year.
For now, CME Bitcoin futures expiring on December 27, 2024, are priced at $99,600, reflecting a 1.2% premium to current spot prices but still below $100,000. This suggests that institutional traders, typically measured by CME futures, are predicting that significant volatility could keep Bitcoin from the six-figure mark before the end of 2024.
*This is not investment advice.
