Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins have failed to recover from the October slump and have had a weak start to 2026. While some analysts expect a rise for BTC in 2026, belief in Bitcoin’s rise is weakening on market-monitoring prediction platforms.
At this point, according to Polymarket data, investors are pricing in a 21% probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year, even though many analysts expect Bitcoin to experience a delayed bull run in 2026.
This reveals that while analysts expect a bull rally, investors remain quite cautious about 2026. This is particularly influenced by the major crash experienced in the final months of 2025 and the weak end to the year.
In a poll titled “What price will Bitcoin reach before 2027?” conducted by Polymarket, investors do not see much chance of Bitcoin’s rise.
According to the data, there is a 45% probability that Bitcoin will reach $120,000 in 2026, below its all-time high.
After that, the probability for $130,000 decreases even further and is priced at only 35%.
The probability of BTC rising to $140,000 is priced in at 28%, while the probability of it rising to $150,000 is priced in at 21%.
Currently, Polymarket investors view Bitcoin reaching $100,000 as the safest bet, pricing it at 80%.
Despite negative expectations in the polymarket, analysts are predicting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2026.
Behind these bullish predictions lies the expectation that US President Donald Trump will announce the new Fed chairman in the coming weeks. The expectation that the new Fed chairman will further lower interest rates could be a positive development for cryptocurrencies like BTC.
Another reason for the increase is seen as the approval of the CLARITY Act. The approval of such important legislation is expected to bring greater regulatory clarity to the market, paving the way for corporate adoption.
*This is not investment advice.
