Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha recently suggested that FED officials' own forecasts for a rate cut in 2024 may be understated.
Analyst Argues that the Possibility of FED's Interest Rate Cut Reduced After Non-Farm Employment Data
According to Guha, this view emerged in light of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which “challenged excessive speculation of a rate cut as early as March.” Non-agricultural employment data was recorded as 199,000 today, above expectations.
The analyst expects the nonfarm payrolls report to encourage Fed officials to lower their own forecasts for rate cuts in 2024 as part of a new Summary of Economic Forecasts to be released next week. Earlier this week, Evercore ISI analysts argued that the FED could postpone interest rate cuts.
The delay would reflect a desire to see more evidence that the economy is steadily moving towards below-potential growth, while preventing financial conditions from easing even more rapidly, analysts say.
Guha reiterated that, contrary to market pricing predicting five rate cuts, median FED officials predict only two rate cuts in 2024.
*This is not investment advice.