As cryptocurrency markets enter the new week with a volatile outlook, a recent assessment shared by analyst Aaron Dishner highlights critical technical levels, particularly for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
According to the analysis, although there are signs of short-term strength in the market, the downside risks are increasing in the coming period.
Bitcoin testing the upper band of the daily TBO Cloud three times in the last seven days indicated a strong short-term outlook. However, Monday’s 1.64% drop revealed the fragility of this rise. The analyst notes that this pattern is similar to the period between November 2021 and January 2022, when a recovery was seen after a 52% retracement from the peak. Now, the most critical signal for the market is a potential TBT negative divergence with a large red candle.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s short-term support structure is showing signs of weakening. Following the loss of the steepest trend line on April 24th, the first significant support level is said to be just below $74,000. A potential pullback towards this level could mean a break below the RSI support and trigger further selling pressure. Furthermore, the liquidation of approximately $2.61 billion in long positions at the $76,780 level is another factor increasing market fragility.
Ethereum shows more weakness. Having lost 2.78% on Monday, ETH fell below both the support trendline and the daily TBO Fast level. The RSI indicator also approaching the loss of support suggests that the downward movement may continue. According to the analyst, if Bitcoin falls to $60,000 (a 22% drop), Ethereum could lose over 23% in a similar scenario, outperforming BTC in the process.
On the other hand, the first TBT positive divergence seen in stablecoin dominance (since July 2025) is historically considered a harbinger of sharp pullbacks in Bitcoin. This is interpreted as a macro-level risk signal across the market. Simultaneously, the fact that Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is trading sideways around 60.5 and the RSI is forming lower peaks strengthens the possibility that investors will return to Bitcoin in the event of a potential decline.
In the altcoin market, pressure is steadily increasing. The fact that large projects like XRP and SOL are falling back under the TBO Cloud is noteworthy, while smaller assets with market cap like ZEC are showing signs of negative divergence. Projects that have recently experienced growth, such as HYPE and NEAR, are showing signs of fatigue. Furthermore, the rejection of XLM from the Fibonacci 0.382 level and the fragile nature of memecoins like SPX6900 and ZBCN highlight the increasing risks in the altcoin market.
*This is not investment advice.
