Glassnode reported that Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated to a critical support zone after retesting its February lows. According to the analysis, while the BTC price remains near important technical levels, the pricing of future uncertainty in the options market has weakened significantly.
Data shows that Bitcoin’s one-week implied volatility has fallen from approximately 60% to 35%. The downward trend in the overall volatility curve also indicates that the market’s expectation of sharp short-term price fluctuations has decreased compared to recent times.
Glassnode also noted that the 25 delta skew indicator has retreated from the extreme levels seen during the June sell-off. This suggests that short-term hedging demand is normalizing and panic-driven hedging positions are weakening.
Despite this, the overall market positioning remains defensive. While downward hedging demand is prominent in short-term options trading, put options accounted for approximately 28% of trading volume last week. In contrast, call option purchases accounted for 24.1%.
The analysis also noted that the one-month implied volatility remained below the realized volatility. This indicates that the options market is pricing in a lower volatility expectation than current price movements imply.
According to Glassnode, there is approximately $1.8 billion in short-term gamma concentration around $62,000. A drop in Bitcoin’s price below this level could lead to accelerated volatility. Conversely, a longer-term gamma buffer exists in the $60,000 region.
*This is not investment advice.
