Greg Cipolaro, Head of Research at NYDIG, a US-based cryptocurrency management company, pointed to a notable divergence in the Bitcoin market. The published analysis indicated a significant difference in sentiment between US institutional investors and international investors.
According to Cipolaro, the fact that the annualized basis rate for Bitcoin futures contracts traded in the US is above the levels seen on the offshore derivatives exchange Deribit indicates that US hedge funds and institutional participants continue to pay a premium to maintain their long positions. This premium structure, particularly seen in Bitcoin futures contracts within the CME Group, suggests that bullish expectations persist on the institutional side.
However, interest in leveraged long positions in offshore markets has reportedly decreased significantly. This is interpreted as investors outside the US adopting a more cautious stance and a reduced risk appetite.
The analysis also considered recent claims circulating on social media that a quantum computing threat caused Bitcoin to fall to $60,000. According to NYDIG, current data does not support this claim.
It has been stated that Bitcoin price movements show a positive correlation with the shares of quantum computing companies IonQ and D-Wave. If quantum technology were truly perceived as a direct threat to Bitcoin, the shares of these companies would be expected to rise as Bitcoin falls. However, the current situation shows a synchronized decline.
This simultaneous decline largely reflects a general decrease in the market’s risk appetite for long-term growth-oriented assets. Therefore, the problem may be less a specific threat to Bitcoin and more a macro-level risk aversion trend.
On the other hand, according to Google Trends data, searches related to quantum computing increased when the Bitcoin price rose, but did not show a significant increase in panic during price drops. This reveals that the “quantum threat” narrative is not so much a panic-driven sell-off, but rather a topic that developed in parallel with market enthusiasm.
*This is not investment advice.
