QCP Capital reported in its latest analysis that market anxiety is increasing in stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies ahead of the US presidential election.
Market Tensions Rising as US Elections Approach, Bitcoin Volatility Expected
Market watchers say former President Donald Trump’s leadership in prediction markets has influenced trading strategies, with long positions on expectations of rising dollar, crypto and Treasury yields gaining traction ahead of the election.
However, a win for Vice President Kamala Harris could reverse these trends, causing overnight swings in markets.
The crypto options market is predicting that Bitcoin will experience a price swing of up to 3.5% on election night, but investors may be underestimating the post-election risk.
Volatility premiums on contracts expiring after November 8 remain low, suggesting that many are expecting a quick resolution in the race.
Bitcoin is seen as part of the “Trump trade” given the former president’s pro-crypto stance. On Monday, while polls showed Harris with a slight lead, Bitcoin spot prices fell and spot ETFs saw significant outflows.
Reminiscent of 2016, when Trump’s unexpected win initially caused U.S. futures to fall before rebounding, QCP expects heavy Bitcoin trading as the results come in.
QCP noted that trading volumes reached a six-month high four days after Joe Biden was officially declared the winner in 2020.
As voting results come in, Bitcoin prices are expected to experience significant fluctuations, signaling a period of choppy trading.
*This is not investment advice.
