On-chain analyst Willy Woo shared a simulation he prepared to examine Bitcoin’s price movements in the coming years. The study highlights prices in the hundreds of thousands of dollars for 2028, while also including sharp declines that could follow the rises.
Woo, speaking from account X today, stated that he found the results of the model, which generated 10,000 possible price trajectories, optimistic. The analyst said that he considered the range between the 28th and 50th percentiles to be more reasonable, suggesting a range of approximately $241,000–$413,000 for the 2028 peak.
Woo also added the note, “This is a simulation, not my prediction,” to his post.
The study uses a method known as Monte Carlo to generate numerous possible future scenarios by analyzing past price movements. Instead of a single upward trend line, it produces rallies and pullbacks of varying magnitudes.
Woo explained that the model also takes into account which phase of Bitcoin’s market cycle it is in. He also stated that instead of fitting price movements to a ready-made statistical distribution, he used a distribution derived from Bitcoin’s historical data.
Data selection was also a noteworthy detail of the study. Woo stated that he focused on the period from the market bottom in 2018 to the bottom in 2022, deliberately excluding previous years where 100x increases in Bitcoin were more easily observed.
The analyst argued that this choice better represents the modern Bitcoin market, shaped by derivative transactions and rapid liquidations. The model also retained the “power law” scaling, which accounts for the decrease in returns with each new cycle.
The line representing the median results in the graph shows a peak of approximately $413,000 for Bitcoin in December 2028. However, along the same line, the price drops to approximately $234,000 in April 2030. Thus, the strong rise in the simulation is followed by a drop of approximately 43%.
In Woo’s less favorable scenario, the December 2028 peak is approximately $241,000, and the April 2030 low is approximately $126,000. The decline between these two points represents roughly 48 percent.
The analyst also explained why he specifically highlighted the lower line. This scenario aligns with a historical pattern where the bottom of the next bear market finds support around the peak of the previous bull market.
The gap between the different outcomes in the graph is quite wide. The upper 90% scoop line shows approximately $1.44 million in March 2029, while the lower 10% scoop line shows approximately $51,900 for April 2030.
These percentiles represent the distribution of the simulation results. Woo’s preference for the 28th–50th percentiles does not mean he gives Bitcoin a 28–50% probability of reaching the specified price range.
The study originated from another Monte Carlo simulation of Bitcoin created by Sminston With. Woo explained that, building on this idea, he added cyclical structure, historical price distribution, and diminishing returns to his own model.
In the longer term, the median reaches approximately $1.03 million in February 2033.
*This is not investment advice.
