New York-based investment management firm VanEck is known for its deepening interest in the crypto space and earlier today filed to launch an ETF tracking the price of Solana. However, the current administration's approval of this ETF seems unlikely.
This filing is the first attempt to launch a Solana (SOL) ETF in the US. This move was expected by many analysts following the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s recent approval of Ethereum-based funds. However, the success of this effort remains questionable.
This filing is the first attempt to launch a Solana (SOL) ETF in the US. This move was expected by many analysts following the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s recent approval of Ethereum-based funds. However, the success of this effort remains questionable.
Bloomberg Intelligence's ETF expert James Seyffart echoed Qureshi's views, suggesting that the fund “could launch in 2025 only if there is a new executive in the White House and the SEC.” Even then, it's not a guarantee, according to the analyst.”
Controversy over Solana's decentralization compared to Ethereum also adds to the complexity. While some argue that Ethereum is more decentralized, others, such as Solana developer and Helius founder Mert Mumtaz, argue that Solana is in the top 1% of decentralized networks.
Qureshi noted that Bitcoin and Ethereum-based ETFs have a better chance of meeting the SEC's market surveillance requirements due to the existence of developed futures markets where these assets are traded. He stated that “without a listed futures market, they cannot meet market surveillance standards.”
Variant Fund's Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky agreed with Qureshi and predicted that the SEC would use Solana's lack of a futures market as grounds for rejection.
Austin Campbell, an associate professor at Columbia Business School, also expressed doubts about approval of VanEck's application. The strategy, he suggested, appeared to be “getting on board early.” The move raises questions about whether other firms will follow VanEck's lead, similar to what happened after BlackRock submitted its surprise spot Bitcoin ETF application in late 2023.
Scott Johnsson, general partner at Van Buren Capital, suggested that VanEck's application could potentially damage President Biden's reputation due to the widespread perception that his administration is anti-crypto. He praised the move as a smart strategy to push the boundaries and raise questions about the SEC's approach to crypto regulation.
Brian Frye, a law professor at the University of Kentucky, believes final approval of Solana ETFs is inevitable, assuming the market is favourable, because from a regulatory perspective, Ethereum and Solana are essentially the same. However, he cautioned that this could take some time due to the SEC's slow pace and current leadership's lack of enthusiasm for crypto in general and approving these ETFs in particular.
*This is not investment advice.