While all eyes are on Ethereum ETFs after the SEC's spot Bitcoin ETF approval, the possibility of approval for ETH ETFs is decreasing day by day.
At this point, while the approval probability of spot Ethereum ETFs was priced at 35%, Blofin analysts evaluated the decrease in the approval probability of spot Ethereum ETF and how the ETH price could be affected by this situation.
Listing the hurdles to the ETH ETF process, Blofin analysts said that the likelihood of spot ETH ETFs receiving approval is significantly reduced due to factors such as the negative effects of the PoS mechanism, risks associated with price manipulation, and the existing dilemma of whether ETH is a security or a commodity.
Analysts added that these factors could negatively impact US regulators' ETH ETF decision.
Stating that whatever the decision is, the ETF decision will not affect the ETH price, analysts said:
“Many investors believed that following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, it was “only a matter of time” for spot ETH ETFs to be approved.”
Some analysts even believed that the probability of approval of spot ETH ETFs could reach 80%, as BlackRock was one of the applicants for spot ETH ETFs.
However, as more details emerged on the matter, analysts gradually lowered their expectations for spot ETH ETFs.
Compared to spot BTC ETFs at this point, the negative impact of the PoS mechanism, price manipulation risk, and securitization risk significantly reduce the likelihood of spot Ethereum ETFs being approved.
But fortunately, whether spot ETH ETFs are approved or not, the final outcome will not affect the ETH price breakthrough. “
Analysts recently stated that Ethereum does not meet some of the standards set by the SEC for Bitcoin and said, “It is difficult to find more reasonable explanations for the set of standards that aim to portray ETH as a “commodity” rather than a “securities”. He pointed out that it is a little difficult for ETH to be accepted as a commodity.
As you may remember, the SEC postponed BlackRock's spot Ethereum ETF application and pointed out its concerns about the Ethereum PoS mechanism in its postponement statement.
*This is not investment advice.
