Analysts are predicting an increase in Ethereum price volatility ahead of this week's spot ETF application deadlines.
Cobo COO Lily King warned of increased volatility and cautious market behavior as traders navigate uncertainties. “We can expect volatility to increase and the market to remain cautious ahead of the decision on spot ETH ETF applications this week,” King said.
Presto research analyst Peter Chung echoed King's views in a report Monday. “Whether approval or rejection, we expect ETH volatility to increase as the May 23 deadline approaches,” Chung said.
The first round of spot ETH ETF deadlines is approaching, with VanEck's May 23 and Ark Invest/21Shares' May 24 deadlines.
However, the majority of analysts predict that the SEC will reject spot Ethereum ETF applications. Polymarket priced the chances of approval at just 14%. Market indicators show traders are largely expecting “rejection and non-event,” according to a report from QCP Capital released today.
However, the QCP Capital report added that a surprise approval of spot ETH ETFs this week could catch the market off guard. “This will trigger a short squeeze that easily takes us back to recent highs for ETH,” QCP Capital analysts said.
Analysts also argued that given ETH's dual role as both a store of value and a Layer 1 blockchain network, its approval would likely cause Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin in terms of price movement.
*This is not investment advice.