Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argued at the Consensus 2026 event that the primary determinant of Bitcoin price movements is not regulations, but global liquidity conditions.
According to Hayes, the main factor behind Bitcoin’s rise and fall cycles has been the expansion of fiat currency liquidity and the money supply in the market. The renowned analyst stated that a large portion of past bull markets were closely linked to developments such as quantitative easing (QE), “money printing” policies during the pandemic, and liquidity injected into the system from reverse repurchase agreements (RRIs).
Arthur Hayes stated that despite recent clearer messages regarding cryptocurrency regulations in the US, this has not created a lasting and strong increase in the price of Bitcoin. According to Hayes, positive developments on the regulatory side alone are not enough to drive the market upwards.
On the other hand, Hayes stated that Bitcoin’s true value stems from its independent nature, allowing it to operate outside of governments and the traditional banking system. He argued that if Bitcoin were to become merely another financial derivative on banks’ balance sheets, the asset could lose its fundamental purpose and meaning.
*This is not investment advice.
