Glassnode, an on-chain analytics company, stated in its weekly Bitcoin report published today that ETF outflows and weak spot demand are putting pressure on the price. According to the company, while some leveraged positions have been cleared, market fragility persists.
The report, which examined data up to the close of trading on November 8, stated that Bitcoin finished the week at approximately $74,760. This represents a 4.5% loss compared to the previous Sunday’s close of $78,280.
Bitcoin briefly rose above $80,000 on Wednesday, but failed to maintain that momentum. A pullback began the following day and continued into Sunday, pushing the price down to its lowest level since August.
$1.6 Billion Withdrew from ETFs
According to Glassnode’s report, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows on four out of five trading days. The total weekly outflow reached approximately $1.6 billion, the highest level since early July.
The increase in net outflows, which was approximately $701 million the previous week, indicated a weakening of demand for funds. Glassnode noted that traditional finance investors were withdrawing capital rather than reacting to the decline with purchases.
The profit share for ETF investors is also shrinking. The ETF MVRV indicator, which compares the market value to the cost of funds, fell from 1.32 to 1.30. According to the company, the average ETF investor’s unrealized profit is at its lowest level since August. This increases sensitivity to further declines.
Trading Volume Increased, But Buyers Couldn’t Keep Up with Sales
Data from the spot market also did not point to a strong buyer turnaround. The spot CVD indicator, which tracks the difference between aggressive buying and selling, turned negative from a positive level of approximately $6.6 million a week ago to a negative level of $91.8 million.
During the same period, spot trading volume tracked in the report increased by 13.3 percent to approximately $6.4 billion. However, Glassnode noted that despite the increased activity, spot demand could not offset the selling pressure experienced during the downturn.
According to the company, sales are not yet at an extreme panic level. However, the fact that investors are not strongly buying while prices are falling remains one of the major obstacles to the recovery.
Leverage Decreased, Long Trade Intensity Continues
Open interest in futures contracts decreased by 1.1 percent to $37 billion. Long positions were closed, particularly during the declines on Thursday and Sunday, as liquidations increased.
Glassnode emphasized that this unwinding did not completely eliminate leverage in the market. The high level of open positions leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to sudden price movements.
The daily funding amount paid for long positions also decreased from approximately $3.1 million to $2.9 million. However, according to the company’s assessment, bullish trades are still crowded, and investors continue to pay high premiums to hold these positions.
In the options market, the demand for hedging against declines is prominent. Glassnode noted that investors maintain a defensive stance even after prices fall.
The Share of Profitable Bitcoins Has Dropped to 60.6%
On-chain data showed that investors’ profits also eroded. The share of Bitcoin supply in profit fell from 62.9% to 60.6% in a week.
The net unrealized profit/loss indicator fell from 3.4% to 1.1%. Glassnode noted that investors who bought recently, in particular, lost a significant portion of their profits, and the short-term investor group incurred a small unrealized loss as of Sunday.
Losses incurred on Bitcoins transferred across the network also outpaced profits. The company interpreted this as an indication of fear-driven selling.
The report also noted a slowdown in capital inflows. Monthly growth in realized market value fell from 0.89% to 0.49%. This means that new capital inflows into the network continue, but at a significantly slower pace compared to the previous week.
Glassnode’s analysis shows that the cleanup in leveraged trading alone is not enough to bring about a recovery. The continued outflow of ETFs and the difficulty spot buyers are having in absorbing the sales are the two main pressures on Bitcoin.
*This is not investment advice.
