The cryptocurrency market has performed stronger than expected following the massive $6.3 billion attack on Binance. Mike, an analyst at the cryptocurrency research platform The DeFi Report, argued that Bitcoin’s (BTC) ability to maintain critical support levels despite the negative developments is a significant signal for a new bull market.
A recent assessment published by The DeFi Report stated that the Binance attack on October 29th was a significant test of Bitcoin’s resilience. According to the analyst, such a large-scale attack could have been expected to cause a correction of up to 20% under past market conditions. However, the analyst suggests that Bitcoin’s approximately 5% drop in value could be an indicator of a shift in investor profiles.
Mike noted that Bitcoin’s volatility is largely driven by investor behavior, and pointed out that the current market structure differs from previous cycles.
Why is the $76,000 Level Important for Bitcoin?
According to the analyst, one of the most important indicators for Bitcoin to maintain its current bull market is the 50-week moving average.
Bitcoin, which had fallen to around $76,000 after the attack, had recovered to the $80,000 level at the time of analysis. Mike noted that the 50-week moving average was around $75,900 and that this level, although tested twice, had not been permanently lost.
The analyst stated that Bitcoin temporarily falling below the average in question does not alone mean the bull market is over, but a sustained weekly decline below this level could weaken the current uptrend.
Mike noted that investors who bought Bitcoin between $78,000 and $92,000 control approximately 18 percent of the total supply, and he viewed this group’s resilience against selling pressure positively.
According to the analyst, the selling pressure from investors who bought Bitcoin at high prices during previous rallies may be largely complete. He estimates that approximately 90% of the selling pressure, particularly from investors who bought above $92,000 and $108,000, has subsided.
This situation could indicate that the conditions are right for Bitcoin to experience a stronger rally should new demand enter the market.
Bitcoin Targets of $87,000 and $95,000
In his assessment of Bitcoin’s short-to-medium-term outlook, Mike identified the $87,000 level as the first significant resistance.
According to the analyst, if Bitcoin surpasses this level, the $94,000 to $95,000 range could become the next target. However, an immediate rally is not expected.
An analyst at The DeFi Report believes Bitcoin could move sideways within a wide price range for the next 6 to 9 months. In this scenario, the consolidation process could continue into the first half of 2027.
Mike stated that he does not see Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in the remainder of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027 as his baseline scenario.
However, arguing that market sentiment may have become overly pessimistic, the analyst said that a break above $87,000 sooner than expected could trigger a rally that might catch investors off guard.
“Selling Pressure on Altcoins May Be Ending”
The analysis also touched upon the altcoin market. Mike noted that in the last 30 days, only about 8% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization outperformed Bitcoin.
The analyst noted that altcoins experienced significant corrections after the September surge, and that the Binance attack further intensified this selling pressure.
However, the fact that some altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in the post-attack recovery suggests, according to the analyst, that selling pressure is beginning to ease.
Mike expects Bitcoin to move first in a potential new bull run, followed by capital shifting to higher-risk altcoins.
What Do ETFs and Macroeconomic Data Tell Us?
The analyst noted that while there was a significant outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs following the attack, the total net money flow over the past six weeks has remained approximately balanced.
In Ethereum ETFs, attention was drawn to the outflows that continued for approximately 25 days. Mike viewed ETH’s relative resilience despite this selling pressure positively.
On the other hand, the fact that stablecoin supply has fallen to its lowest levels in the last year indicates that the market has not yet entered a period of strong liquidity expansion.
On the macroeconomic front, the analyst said he was particularly monitoring credit risk premiums. He stated that concerns about financing AI investments were causing an increase in risk premiums, but he had not yet seen a significant deterioration in banks’ lending activity.
According to Mike, the current macroeconomic environment could support Bitcoin’s recovery if there is no significant tightening of credit conditions.
Analyst: The Bitcoin Bull Market Is Not Over Yet
In its overall assessment, The DeFi Report emphasized that the Binance attack was one of the significant developments testing Bitcoin’s market structure.
The analyst argued that current market conditions are favorable due to a significant cleanup of leveraged positions, reduced selling by investors who bought at high levels, and a strengthening of the long-term investor base.
Based on Bitcoin holding above its 50-week moving average, Mike said that current data continues to support an early-stage bull market scenario.
*This is not investment advice.
