Following the launch of Solana (SOL) futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) yesterday, it saw minimal trading activity, raising questions about institutional demand for the altcoin, according to a report by K33 Research.
K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman noted that Solana futures saw just $12.3 million in volume on its first day, with open interest remaining at $7.8 million. This lackluster start contrasts sharply with previous CME futures launches for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which saw significantly higher interest.
Bitcoin futures were launched on the CME in December 2017 with $102.7 million in trading volume and $20.9 million in open interest on the first day. Ethereum futures, which were launched in February 2021, recorded $31 million in volume and $20 million in open interest on the first day.
Lunde and Zimmerman noted that the market environment at the time of Solana’s futures launch was much more risk-averse than previous futures launches. The current market lacks strong catalysts that would drive speculative interest in the new derivatives, unlike the peak of the 2017 crypto bull market or the altcoin season of early 2021.
While the market cap setting puts Solana’s futures launch relatively in line with historical trends, the absolute numbers remain significantly smaller. This muted response raises concerns about the potential impact of a Solana spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) if it wins U.S. approval this year. Analysts at K33 believe that, unlike the landmark U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launch in January 2024, an altcoin ETF, including one for Solana, would likely have a more limited impact on price action.
*This is not investment advice.
