While there is very little time left for the halving in Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, investors are wondering about its impact on the price.
At this point, while analysts look at many data and models to predict the impact of the halving on the BTC price, past cycle data is used the most.
However, Goldman Sachs warned its clients not to use historical cycle data alone in Bitcoin price prediction.
According to Coindesk, Goldman Sachs analysts stated that the Bitcoin halving did not trigger previous bull runs on its own, and that macro factors probably played a role, and warned that this halving should not be expected to be effective alone in the rise of the price.
“Historically the previous three halvings have been accompanied by a rise in BTC price after the halving, but the time it takes for BTC to reach all-time highs varies significantly.
One should be careful about predicting the current cycle and the impact of the halving on Bitcoin price from past cycles. Because in every cycle, there were other catalysts in the BTC rally other than halving.
Because in past halving periods, the macroeconomic environment, today's high inflation and high interest rate, was completely different.
In other words, for history to repeat itself for Bitcoin, macro conditions must also support risk taking in BTC.
But that is not the case today: Interest rates in the United States, the world's largest economy, are running above 5%, and markets have recently priced in hopes of a rate cut this year in light of sticky inflation and a resilient economy.”
Goldman Sachs analysts recently stated that although there will be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event after the BTC halving next week, this will have little impact on the medium-term outlook of BTC.
Because analysts stated that the Bitcoin price will most likely continue to be driven by the supply-demand dynamic, saying, “The continued demand for BTC ETFs, combined with the nature of crypto markets, will be the main determinant of spot price movement.” said.
*This is not investment advice.
