With just days left until the US presidential election, presidential candidate Donald Trump’s winning odds have decreased on Polymarket, while Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency with which it is closely associated, has also seen declines.
At this point, BTC fell to $67,400, while analysts noted that there could be fluctuations in the price in both directions before and after the election.
Speaking to Coindesk, Amberdata derivatives director Greg Magadini said that with the US presidential election approaching and the presidential race being tight, BTC could move in either direction between $6,000 and $8,000.
“As a result of the post-election price reaction, I expect a +1.5 Sigma swing, i.e. a swing in the $6,000 to $8,000 price range.
My estimate is based on a 112% annualized forward volatility from a November 6 options trade on Deribit, suggesting a $4,000 price swing in either direction.
Its positive 1.5-sigma corresponds to a price swing in the $6,000 to $8,000 range.”
Magadini said options traders are preparing for bullish volatility, noting that volatility and the expected price action in Bitcoin are two-way: “They are buying calls on Deribit and CME at $70,000, $85,000 and $90,000 expiration times,” he said.
Apart from Magadini, Arbelos Markets co-founder Joshua Lim also said that options traders are expecting an uptrend, and that they prefer calls at levels of $70,000 and above on Deribit and CME.
Stating that this situation shows an upward trend despite the recent spot price declines, Lim said that apart from the US elections this week, the FED's interest rate decision is also critical.
*This is not investment advice.