In general, analysts and the market have a common opinion about the reasons for the decline in Bitcoin and altcoins. The reasons for the decline are Mt.Gox refunds, Bitcoin sales by Germany and the US government, and outflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
While Grayscale stated in its latest report that it agrees with the market on the reasons for the decline, it expects the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets to recover in the coming months unless there is a major change in the macroeconomic outlook.
Stating that the sales pressure that continued to come from various sources had a hard impact in June and July, Grayscale wrote that the fundamentals of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have not changed much.
Stating that despite the decline experienced by the BTC and crypto markets in June, they continue their upward expectations for the rest of the year, Grayscale said:
“In Grayscale Research's view, genuine selling pressure from several sources contributed to Bitcoin's decline throughout the month. As Bitcoin's weakness continued into July, this weakness appears to have spread to the rest of the cryptocurrency market.
These short-term sell-offs may have had a temporary impact on Bitcoin's price, but we do not see meaningful changes in the asset's fundamentals.
In our view, a growing US economy, possible interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and strong equity markets and the macroeconomic backdrop remain generally supportive for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Moreover, spot Ethereum ETF approval has the potential to attract more investors to the market.”
Finally, touching on spot Ethereum ETFs, Grayscale estimates that ETH ETFs will begin trading in the 3rd quarter of 2024, while the approval date remains uncertain.
The Grayscale team said it expects Ethereum ETFs to experience higher net inflows, though less than spot Bitcoin ETFs, and potentially a rally in ETH and ETH-based altcoins.
*This is not investment advice.