Goldman Sachs economists predicted that the FED would make three consecutive interest rate cuts in the remaining meetings of this year, and revised their previous predictions that there would be two interest rate cuts.
In a detailed note, Goldman Sachs cited softening labor market conditions as a key factor affecting this updated forecast. “Today's report indicates that the softening in labor market conditions has now gone beyond welcome,” the note said.
The new forecast includes a potential 25 basis point cut at each of the remaining three Fed meetings this year. Additionally, Goldman Sachs economists said a 50 basis point cut in September could be likely if the August employment report shows further weakness.
Here are the important takeaways from Goldman Sachs' report:
- July Employment Data: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 in July, below consensus expectations. More than half of these employment increases occurred in the healthcare sector, while the payroll diffusion index fell to its lowest level since May 2016.
- Unemployment Rate: The household survey reflected that the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 points to 4.3%. Although Hurricane Beryl had “no significant impact on national employment and unemployment data for July,” there was a significant increase in the number of employees absent from work and temporarily laid off due to weather conditions.
- Average Hourly Earnings: These earnings increased by 0.2% in July compared to the previous month, falling below expectations. The base rate of average hourly earnings growth is estimated at +3.9%.
*This is not investment advice.