In its “2026 Crypto Market Outlook” report, global asset management giant Fidelity Digital Assets noted that more countries may consider Bitcoin as a reserve asset in the coming period.
The report states that investors aiming for short-term gains should exercise caution, but the opportunity to enter the market has not completely disappeared for investors with a long-term perspective.
Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, pointed to game theory in his assessment of Bitcoin adoption. Kuiper stated, “From a game theory perspective, it’s likely that more countries will buy Bitcoin in the future. If some countries include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves, other countries may feel competitive pressure.” According to Kuiper, from a simple supply-demand dynamics standpoint, any additional demand for Bitcoin could create upward pressure on prices. However, the determining factor will be the scale of this demand and whether existing investors will sell or hold onto their holdings.
The report also noted that the increase in corporate cryptocurrency purchases supported market demand and drove prices higher. However, Kuiper warned that this also carries risks. “If these companies are forced to sell some of their digital assets, for example during a bear market, this could put significant downward pressure on the prices of Bitcoin and other crypto assets,” he stated.
Kuiper also addressed the debate surrounding the four-year Bitcoin cycle, arguing that this pattern hasn’t completely disappeared. According to Kuiper, emotions like fear and greed, which fuel the cycle, still have an impact on the market. The current price drop could be the beginning of a new bear market, or it could be a healthy correction within a strong bull market. Therefore, a clear conclusion regarding the accuracy of cycle predictions may only emerge later in 2026.
Kuiper concluded by noting that the crypto market has entered a new paradigm. “We are seeing completely new types of investors, and of different scales, entering the market. I believe this trend will continue until 2026,” said Kuiper, adding that while traditional fund managers and institutional investors are showing increased interest in digital assets like Bitcoin, the size of capital that can enter this space is only just being seen.
*This is not investment advice.
