The Bitcoin halving, which is awaited with great excitement among cryptocurrency followers, will be unlike any before, according to some analysts. According to Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto exchange Nexo, this year's halving is expected to bring about an explosive mix of decreasing supply and increasing demand from ETFs.
“What makes this halving unique is that Bitcoin has already surpassed the high of the last cycle, something that has never been seen before the quadrennial event, which makes trying to predict the length and severity of this cycle much more difficult,” Trenchev said. said.
Following halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin price increased by approximately 93x, 30x, and 8x, respectively, from the halving day price to the cycle peak. However, past performance is not indicative of future returns, and some warn that the days of halvings having a significant impact on Bitcoin price may be long gone due to supply shrinking every four years.
Despite these warnings, Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin, believes that “if ever there was a time to be a little more optimistic” about returns after the halving, it is this year.
“This Bitcoin bull cycle, further accelerated by the approval of spot ETFs in January, could be shorter and more explosive, resulting in a peak in late 2024 or early 2025,” Trenchev added.
The halving is not like an on/off switch that is flipped at a certain time. It would be logical to assume that that day will come and go without much movement in the market. However, there may be a fluctuation caused by speculators trading on the event. Lubka warned that investors should not confuse this with the technical change occurring.
An important factor that investors need to understand about the halving and its potential impact on the market is the role of miners. Miners sell most of the Bitcoin they receive to pay their daily bills.
“These are very costly businesses that have to consume a lot of energy and other things to do their job,” Lubka said.
“Miners are constantly selling the Bitcoin they mined to cover their costs. When that decreases by half, half less Bitcoin is sold from miners.”
*This is not investment advice.