Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, in a live broadcast where he discussed Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent decline, said the market could form a significant bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026. Examining past Bitcoin cycles, Cowen discussed two different scenarios for the end of the decline, stating that the next few days could be critical.
Commenting on the situation while Bitcoin was trading around $77,000, the analyst noted that the price had retreated to the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). According to Cowen, the bull market support band between $73,000 and $77,000 is one of the most important areas that will determine Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin had fallen to $76,642, with the 21-week EMA around $76,612. He stated that these levels could trigger buying activity, but there was no guarantee that support would be maintained.
Two Different Downfall Scenarios for Bitcoin
Cowen’s initial scenario is based on Bitcoin rapidly losing its current support zone and experiencing a sharp capitulation.
The analyst recalled the 2022 FTX crash, noting that Bitcoin lost approximately 24-25% of its value in just two days at that time, and the market quickly bottomed out.
According to Cowen, if a similar panic sell-off occurs, Bitcoin could form a cycle bottom before the US midterm elections, or even in the last days of October.
In the second scenario, Bitcoin is expected to rebound from its current support zone, then fall again in November to reach its final bottom.
Cowen stated that Bitcoin finding support around $76,000 and rising to the $79,000-$80,000 region would strengthen the second scenario. In such a case, he believes the final wave of decline could occur immediately after the US midterm elections.
The analyst cited price movements in 2014, 2018, and 2022 as examples, recalling significant drops in Bitcoin following the US midterm elections. However, he emphasized that the possibility of selling pressure starting before the elections in 2026 constitutes a different scenario from previous cycles.
Cowen: Past Cycles May Be Repeating Themselves
Cowen also considered Bitcoin’s fall back below its previous peak, after having risen above it, as a significant technical development.
According to the analyst, two consecutive weekly closes below the previous peak could signal a false upward breakout. Cowen noted that similar movements in past cycles have been followed by sharp declines.
Cowen, also drawing attention to the timing of Bitcoin’s bottoming out in past cycles, stated that the bottom occurred on day 1,432 in the two previous cycles and on day 1,436 in the most recent cycle. He noted that the current cycle is on day 1,439, arguing that this is a critical point in terms of historical timing.
However, Cowen said that a surge in trading volume on the scale seen in past major bear market lows has not yet occurred. According to the analyst, the final lows in 2015, 2018, and 2022 were formed by significant increases in volume.
Therefore, a surge in trading volume accompanied by sharp sell-offs in Bitcoin could be a significant sign that the market is entering a capitulation phase.
Binance Attack and Decline in Technology Stocks Draw Attention
Cowen stated that news of the Binance attack, which has been circulating in the cryptocurrency market, is also one of the risks that could accelerate the current selling pressure. While he said he hasn’t yet conducted a detailed investigation into the scope of the incident, the analyst reminded that major stock market crises have historically accelerated the formation of market bottoms.
On the other hand, Cowen also drew attention to the pullback in technology stocks, stating that the Nasdaq had lost approximately 9% and that selling pressure in the technology sector had become more pronounced.
According to the analyst, the coincidence of the stock market correction and the cryptocurrency market decline is similar to past cycles.
Cowen also believes the US dollar could remain strong until the end of the year, and that other crypto assets, including Ethereum, could bottom out in the near future, similar to Bitcoin.
Could Bitcoin Rise Again in 2027?
Cowen, also commenting on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, said that if the current decline concludes in a manner similar to past cycles, a new bull run could begin in 2027.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin fell approximately 77% from its peak during the 2022 bear market, and stated that he does not expect an equally large loss in the current cycle.
However, he stated that it is not certain that Bitcoin will find lasting support in the $76,000 region and that there is a possibility that the price will test lower levels, similar to its realized value.
Cowen emphasized that investors should be particularly wary of panic selling, reminding them that Bitcoin has bottomed out in relatively short periods in the past, followed by strong recoveries.
*This is not investment advice.
