In his year-end assessment, Cantor Fitzgerald stated that Bitcoin (BTC) may have entered a downtrend that could last for months, and that the market could face a “crypto winter” by 2026.
According to the report, Bitcoin has been declining for approximately 85 days since its recent peak, and if the pressure on the price continues, there is a possibility that it will test Strategy’s average cost level of around $75,000.
Analyst Brett Knoblauch argued that the current pullback may be longer-lasting than in past cycles, but it is not expected to turn into a systemic crisis. Unlike previous bear markets, Cantor Fitzgerald does not foresee widespread liquidations or a chain reaction collapse in this process.
The report highlighted the shift in market structure. It noted that while institutional investors are gaining weight in the current cycle, the divergence between token price performance and on-chain fundamentals is widening. Specifically, it stated that on-chain activity in DeFi, tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure continues to strengthen independently of price fluctuations.
On the regulatory front, the passage of the US Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act was considered a critical turning point. This law is expected to reduce policy uncertainty and encourage deeper involvement of banks and asset management companies in the cryptocurrency markets.
While Cantor Fitzgerald acknowledges that a new bull market may not begin immediately in 2026, he concludes that institutionalization, compliance pathways, and on-chain infrastructure gradually gain strength as prices cool.
*This is not investment advice.
