Crypto analyst Joao Wedson stated that a critical on-chain indicator needs to be closely monitored for the start of a new bull market in Bitcoin.
According to Wedson, the signal for the next strong upward wave will come when the Net Recognized Profit/Loss for Long-Term Investors (NUPL) metric turns negative.
According to data shared by Wedson, the NUPL (Number of Earners) value for long-term investors is currently at 0.36. This ratio indicates that the most resilient group of investors in the market is, on average, still holding unrealized profits. The NUPL metric measures whether investors are holding their Bitcoins at a profit or a loss compared to their cost. The situation of long-term investors, in particular, is considered a critical indicator for understanding the current stage of market cycles.
According to the analyst, the real strong signal will come when this indicator moves into negative territory. A scenario where even long-term investors incur unrealized losses historically points to a “maximum depression” phase in markets. These periods are generally characterized by the exhaustion of sellers, the transfer of Bitcoins from weak hands to strong hands, and the laying of the foundations for a new market cycle.
Wedson argued that in previous cycles, the Long-Term Investor NUPL moving into negative territory represented the final stage before a new bull market began.
*This is not investment advice.
