The minutes of the FED's June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were just released Wednesday evening.
Here are important excerpts from the meeting minutes:
- The FED is waiting for 'additional information' to gain confidence about interest rate cuts.
- FED: Many workers say unemployment may increase if demand weakens.
- The majority of participants in the Fed's meeting on June 11-12 evaluated that economic growth in the USA was gradually slowing down.
- Most participants viewed the current policy stance as restrictive.
- If inflation remains at high levels or rises further, the interest rate may need to be increased, some participants said.
- Some participants specifically emphasized that further weakening of demand could lead to a greater unemployment response than in the recent past.
- Some participants said policy should be ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness.
- May CPI data was seen by participants as further evidence that progress was being made towards the inflation target.
- Participants noted modest progress towards the Committee's 2% inflation target in recent months.
- Some participants pointed out that unemployment may increase if demand weakens.
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FED Chairman Powell reiterated yesterday that the FED needed more data before truly easing monetary policy.
Powell's comments come as prices fell from 2.8% in April to 2.6% in May, the lowest in more than three years, according to the latest data from the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, calculated by excluding volatile food and energy prices. It came just days after it posted its slow annual gain.
Inflation, which showed signs of stalling in the first quarter, slowed down and this caused FED officials to consider keeping interest rates high for a longer time.
Powell said he wants to understand whether the levels the Fed is seeing in inflation are a true assessment of underlying inflation, and reiterated that the Fed can afford to be patient given a strong job market that is slowly cooling.
Still, these comments pleased investors who expected a rate cut later this year, and investors priced the probability of the first rate cut in September at around 60%.
*This is not investment advice.