Itaú, Brazil's largest private bank, has recommended in a new research report that investors allocate 1% to 3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin by 2026.
The bank cited the need for risk diversification and protection against currency fluctuations as the primary rationale for this recommendation.
The report states that despite Bitcoin's recent price decline, it plays a complementary role in portfolios amid increasing global and geopolitical uncertainties. The analysis argues that the crypto asset is no longer merely a speculative tool, but has become an alternative stabilizing element for portfolios exposed to economic uncertainties.
Renato Eid, an analyst at Itaú who signed the document, stated that Bitcoin does not have the same dynamics as stocks, fixed-income instruments, or local markets. According to Eid, the asset's global and decentralized nature offers different opportunities for investors who want to maintain a risk-return balance in negative scenarios. The report also noted that despite high volatility, Bitcoin retains its long-term appreciation potential.
The report noted that the weak performance in 2025 was not an isolated incident. It recalled that Bitcoin traded at around $93,500 at the beginning of the year, fell to around $80,000, and tested historical highs above $125,000. However, the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar amplified losses for local investors. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin's year-on-year loss in dollar terms remained at 3.5%, while the decline in real terms reached 16.2%.
The analysis also added that sharp currency fluctuations directly affect Bitcoin's performance in Brazil. It was noted that the dollar exchange rate approaching 6.30 real in December 2024 gave renewed strength to BTC positions, highlighting the asset's function as a hedge against currency risk during periods of stress. Therefore, Itaú argued that the real risk might be not taking any positions in the market at all.
Itaú emphasized a disciplined approach as a strategy. According to the bank, short-term price predictions often fail in risky assets. Therefore, adopting a long-term perspective, adjusting positions through regular rebalancing, and avoiding impulsive decisions based on recent volatility are recommended. Eid described this approach as a “combination of moderation and resilience.”
The report stated that Bitcoin should be a complementary element of a balanced portfolio, not its central component.
*This is not investment advice.
