Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas recently announced that the probability of the Bitcoin spot ETF failing has dropped from 10% to just 5%.
Reasons for potential failure could include the SEC filing new challenges, ignoring court orders, or intervention by the Biden administration. However, the ETF is expected to be approved next week.
What are the Bitcoin Spot ETFs Disapproval Scenarios?
Bloomberg Analyst James Seyffart offered three possible scenarios in response to a follower's question about the consequences of the previously mentioned 10% probability of failure for BTC spot ETFs:
- Ark Invest withdraws with reassurance regarding March: While this scenario is possible, it is considered unlikely.
- Gary Gensler overstates the issue and the SEC refuses to advance new grounds or ignores the court: This causes the matter to go back to court. However, this outcome does not seem likely.
- The Biden administration intervenes to stop the process: This is another unlikely scenario.
Balchunas agreed with Seyffart's assessment, but suggested that the probability of failure at this point might be closer to 5%. He said it's important to keep a small window open for such possibilities.
It is known that BlackRock executives are expecting an approval for Bitcoin Spot ETFs on Wednesday next week.
*This is not investment advice.