Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas raised their expectations for the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to 65%, from 50% a few weeks ago and 1% a few months ago.
Analysts listed the involvement of BlackRock and Coinbase in spot Bitcoin ETF filings, the ongoing legal battle between the SEC and Grayscale Investments over Bitcoin trust, and the significant victory of XRP in its lawsuit against the SEC as key events that influenced their final views.
Seyffart said he is following the race between eight other spot BTC ETF applicants and Grayscale, which wants to convert its Bitcoin trust into an ETF.
Grayscale said it speculated on the timing of litigation dates, but thought the most likely scenario was for the SEC to simultaneously approve all nine products after the courts overturned the SEC's rejection of Grayscale's application.
Seyffart said the following about the current situation in his tweet:
“The premise of this current thesis is Grayscale's victory over the SEC in Federal court. Could that set things right for an SEC approval wave in Q4? It all depends on how hard SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is willing to tinker here. ”
He added that the strategic service agreement (SSA) that allows BlackRock and Coinbase to use Coinbase's custody and execution services for BlackRock's spot BTC ETF is a game-changer for the analysis of spot BTC ETF prospects.
*Not investment advice.