Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that the upward trend in Bitcoin’s price could continue as long as debt-related concerns do not ease. Hougan supported his assessment with a chart he shared on social media platform X, highlighting the relationship between market developments and Bitcoin’s performance.
According to Hougan’s chart, between July 1st and September 15th, the probability of the US Clarity Act being passed this year dropped from 39% to 18% in the Polymarket. During the same period, the price of Bitcoin increased by 38%.
The data reveals that expectations regarding regulatory developments in the cryptocurrency market are not aligning with Bitcoin’s price movement. Hougan stated that, based on this picture, concerns about the US debt outlook have become a significant factor in market pricing.
The Clarity Act is one of the legislative proposals aimed at clarifying the regulatory framework for crypto assets in the United States. Its progress through the legislative process is influenced by procedural votes in the Senate.
A previous cloture vote in the US Senate failed to secure the necessary support to move the bill to the next stage. The cloture procedure aims to end discussions on a bill, paving the way for it to be considered in the Senate General Assembly.
Hougan’s assessment suggests that Bitcoin’s recent performance is linked not only to developments specific to the crypto sector, but also to broader macroeconomic factors such as the US fiscal outlook and investor debt concerns. However, the future trajectory of Bitcoin’s price depends on numerous different market conditions.
*This is not investment advice.
