While the decline in Bitcoin and altcoins has unnerved investors, a new report concerning BTC has emerged from Binance Research, the research arm of Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges.
Is There a Possibility of Bitcoin Rising?
In its monthly market report dated November 2026, the Binance Research team examined the impact of changes in global monetary policy on the Bitcoin price. At this point, Binance Research suggests that with the slowdown in global tightening, BTC may have the potential to recover even before interest rate cuts. Accordingly, a recovery in Bitcoin could occur even without waiting for central banks to begin cutting interest rates.
According to a Binance Research report, eight of the ten largest central banks in the G10 countries have raised interest rates in the last six months, while two kept rates unchanged. The report notes that following the Swedish central bank’s interest rate hike on November 4th, the global monetary policy diffusion index reached +0.8.
However, the Binance Research team emphasized that the speed at which tightening spreads, rather than its prevalence, is more decisive for Bitcoin.
At this point, the team wrote that they found a negative correlation of -0.62 between the six-month changes in the global monetary policy diffusion index since 2021 and Bitcoin’s six-month returns.
According to Binance Research, this correlation suggests that a slowdown in global tightening momentum could be significant for Bitcoin’s performance and rise.
Bitcoin Didn’t Wait for Interest Rate Cuts in Past Cycles!
The report also used past market cycles to assess the current outlook. It noted that in 2022, the momentum of global tightening peaked in mid-2022 and fell to zero in early 2023. Accordingly, Bitcoin hit its bottom in November 2022 and its six-month return returned to positive territory in February 2023.
The report noted that a key point was that Bitcoin achieved this recovery before G10 central banks began cutting interest rates.
Similarly, in 2024, with the acceleration of monetary easing on a global scale, Bitcoin’s six-month return exceeded 160% in March.
At this point, Binance Research predicts that if the current trend continues, the global monetary policy diffusion index could remain at +0.8, but the tightening momentum could decrease to around +0.3 by January 2027.
According to the team, a potential Fed rate hike in December would have more of an impact on US bond yields than on changing the extent of global tightening.
In conclusion, Binance Research notes that global monetary policy has not yet eased, but a slowdown in the pace of tightening could create a more favorable macroeconomic environment for Bitcoin. However, the report also emphasizes that this relationship is not a guaranteed price increase.
*This is not investment advice.
